Predictive effect of economic and market variations on structural breaks in credit rating dynamics

Abstract Recent studies have shown that firms credit rating transition process is not stationary and may have structural breaks. To study the predictability of structural breaks, we develop a predictive model for latent structural breaks in firms rating transition dynamics, using historical records of (highdimensional) economic and market fundamentals. As a large number of economic and market variables are sometimes involved in the study, we also introduce an inference procedure that select and estimate important economic factors at the same time from the high-dimensional factor space. Based on an empirical study using the U.S. firms' credit rating transition records and the history of economic and market variations from 1986 to 2013, we demonstrate that not all structural breaks are black-swan events and some of them can be estimated and predicted up to certain extent

Endogenous structural transformation in economic development

This paper proposes a framework to model how a country develops its economy by endogenous structural transformation and efficient resource allocation in a market mechanism. To achieve this goal, the paper first summarizes three attributes of economic structures from the literature, namely, structurality, durationality, and transformality, and discuss their implications for methods of economic modeling. Then, with the common knowledge assumption, the paper studies a Ramsey growth model with endogenous structural transformation in which the social planner chooses the optimal industrial structure, recource allocation with the chosen structure, and consumption to maximize the representative household's total utility subject to the resource constraint. The paper next establishes the mathematical underpinning of the static, dynamic, and structural equilibria. The Ramsey growth model and its equilibria are then extended to economies with complicated economic structures consisting of hierarchical production, composite consumption, technology adoption and innovation, infrastructure, and economic and political institutions. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of applications of the proposed methodology to economic development problems in other scenarios.Comment: 43 pages, 0 figure

Stochastic Segmentation Models for Array-Based Comparative Genomic Hybridization Data Analysis

Array-based comparative genomic hybridization (array-CGH) is a high throughput, high resolution technique for studying the genetics of cancer. Analysis of array-CGH data typically involves estimation of the underlying chromosome copy numbers from the log fluorescence ratios and segmenting the chromosome into regions with the same copy number at each location. We propose for the analysis of array-CGH data, a new stochastic segmentation model and an associated estimation procedure that has attractive statistical and computational properties. An important benefit of this Bayesian segmentation model is that it yields explicit formulas for posterior means, which can be used to estimate the signal directly without performing segmentation. Other quantities relating to the posterior distribution that are useful for providing confidence assessments of any given segmentation can also be estimated by using our method. We propose an approximation method whose computation time is linear in sequence length which makes our method practically applicable to the new higher density arrays. Simulation studies and applications to real array-CGH data illustrate the advantages of the proposed approach

1,4-Bis[(2-ethyl-1H-benzimidazol-1-yl)meth­yl]benzene

In the title mol­ecule, C26H26N4, the central benzene ring forms dihedral angles of 89.9 (2) and 85.4 (2)° with the two benzimidazole rings

Deciphering hierarchical organization of topologically associated domains through change-point testing.

BACKGROUND: The nucleus of eukaryotic cells spatially packages chromosomes into a hierarchical and distinct segregation that plays critical roles in maintaining transcription regulation. High-throughput methods of chromosome conformation capture, such as Hi-C, have revealed topologically associating domains (TADs) that are defined by biased chromatin interactions within them. RESULTS: We introduce a novel method, HiCKey, to decipher hierarchical TAD structures in Hi-C data and compare them across samples. We first derive a generalized likelihood-ratio (GLR) test for detecting change-points in an interaction matrix that follows a negative binomial distribution or general mixture distribution. We then employ several optimal search strategies to decipher hierarchical TADs with p values calculated by the GLR test. Large-scale validations of simulation data show that HiCKey has good precision in recalling known TADs and is robust against random collisions of chromatin interactions. By applying HiCKey to Hi-C data of seven human cell lines, we identified multiple layers of TAD organization among them, but the vast majority had no more than four layers. In particular, we found that TAD boundaries are significantly enriched in active chromosomal regions compared to repressed regions. CONCLUSIONS: HiCKey is optimized for processing large matrices constructed from high-resolution Hi-C experiments. The method and theoretical result of the GLR test provide a general framework for significance testing of similar experimental chromatin interaction data that may not fully follow negative binomial distributions but rather more general mixture distributions

Estimation of Parent Specific DNA Copy Number in Tumors using High-Density Genotyping Arrays

Chromosomal gains and losses comprise an important type of genetic change in tumors, and can now be assayed using microarray hybridization-based experiments. Most current statistical models for DNA copy number estimate total copy number, which do not distinguish between the underlying quantities of the two inherited chromosomes. This latter information, sometimes called parent specific copy number, is important for identifying allele-specific amplifications and deletions, for quantifying normal cell contamination, and for giving a more complete molecular portrait of the tumor. We propose a stochastic segmentation model for parent-specific DNA copy number in tumor samples, and give an estimation procedure that is computationally efficient and can be applied to data from the current high density genotyping platforms. The proposed method does not require matched normal samples, and can estimate the unknown genotypes simultaneously with the parent specific copy number. The new method is used to analyze 223 glioblastoma samples from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) project, giving a more comprehensive summary of the copy number events in these samples. Detailed case studies on these samples reveal the additional insights that can be gained from an allele-specific copy number analysis, such as the quantification of fractional gains and losses, the identification of copy neutral loss of heterozygosity, and the characterization of regions of simultaneous changes of both inherited chromosomes